Who will win today’s vote?

Today is a second round of voting for the Tory leadership (PM) and it could be very interesting. Rory Stewart is like a racehorse coming up on the outside because against all the odds his media campaign (take note business men and companies) has really given him traction. Yes those that have already some notoriety (I chose the word carefully) are in the but it proves tat a decent campaign can ignite a public will. Whether he will overturn Boris’ is not even a guess it is a no chance but give him his few minutes in the light.

The reality could be that by default Boris could be PM in waiting by the end of the day. If he stays ahead, which after not appearing in Channel 4’s debacle he is, then no one can catch him. Candidates like Rory, Raab etc in apparent second place look great but the reality is of Boris, sitting on 140+ and the rest around 30. This is clearly a race on TV channel ratings only. Cue the BBC debate next.

Back to today. If Boris can cleave beyond the 154 mark then the votes for his opponents falls to mathematics. If they poll as expected one will clear ahead of the pack giving the Tories their two candidates for the membership. However. If Stewart picks up a few extra and say reaches 33 the rest are all in a similar position and their extra votes because of the spread are limited meaning none of them get above 33 then what? This is the cut off point in so much as anyone on or below is removed from the next phase of the race. Ergo Boris wins. Bet you didn’t know that.